Reducing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, determinants and alternatives

Posted, 2020-03-27


Samir Al-Nassery

The Central Bankís website has published a study of the Governor of the Central Bank, Mr. Ali Al-Alaq. The first of 2020. It is an accurate analytical study on the negative and positive determinants of economic reality and alternatives in the case of the current conditions of Iraq. The governor concluded in the end that the Iraqi dinar exchange rate was targeted Realistically, improving the financial position of the government and covering the budget deficit due to the continuous escalation in public budget expenditures, but that will achieve a reduction in the exchange rate is only a small percentage compared to the negative economic aspects and impacts on the economic situation, on the citizen, and on the market. The governor approached based on indicators and digital analysis For economic activity, stressing that the solution to the problem is to go to support and stimulate the real sector, diversify sources of income and increase budget revenues towards reducing the contribution rate of oil revenue to the budget.
I believe that, according to what was mentioned in the above study, facing the economic crisis expected this year as much as it relates to the case of Iraq requires the following:
1- That the central bank be allowed to continue with the applications of its approved monetary policy in accordance with its strategy (2016-2020) and its plan for its strategic banking projects until the year 2023 and not to interfere with its independence and establish its leadership and technical cadres that have proven successful during the economic and security shocks after 2014 until the present time.
2- Benefiting from the excellent position and monetary indicators of the Central Bank, which is its foreign cash reserves, safe investments, exchange rate stability, price preservation, and stable inflation in dealing with the expected crisis.
3- Reconsidering the structure of the 2020 public budget and adjusting it to a (crisis) budget and focusing on; -
* Adoption of the price of oil in light of expectations for the next three quarters of the year 2020 and ranging between (2530) dollars / barrel and marketing up to (4) million barrels / day and Kurdistanís commitment to deliver 250 barrels / day to SOMO.
* Continued coverage of the salaries of employees, retirees and social welfare
* Covering allocations for the implementation of the reform decisions amounting to (10) trillion dinars, which the resigned government committed to achieve the demonstrators' demands.
* Covering the allocations for the implementation of the Iraqi-Chinese agreement, which was leaked, approximately (3) trillion dinars.
* Continued implementation of projects in liberated cities that have been started and completed 25% of them, according to Cabinet Resolution 245 of 2019.
* Reducing government spending and allocations for the three presidencies, parliament, ministries, and agencies
The special rate of 50%, including the salaries of the above authorities.
* The Central Bank continues to implement its initiatives to finance small and medium projects and projects of more than one billion dinars, which it recently launched.
* Supporting and involving the private sector in making economic decisions and implementing existing reconstruction and investment projects in the liberated cities covered by Resolution 245 of 2019. And investment in factories and government factories and contribute to its management to support local production and reduce imports. And rid the public treasury of central financing.
* Not to resort to external borrowing, and for internal borrowing to be within controlled limits.
They are just insights and ideas that may help bypass the SK virus economy, health and politics.
* Banking expert