Iraq is in danger ... the unilateral economy threatens to collapse the state

2020-07-05

Iraq

Dr.. Hussein Al-Asadi

Specialists have repeatedly diagnosed the problem of mono-product economy, which relies on oil as the only source for preparing budgets, but successive Iraqi governments are still working in the same way and manner, so it was not shocking to observers the numbers announced by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, where the amountof exports from Crude oil (103,144,911) barrels, with total imports for the month of April (approximately 1,400,000,000) dollars.
It indicated that the total daily rate of exports reached (3,438,000) barrels,
The average price per barrel was (13.801) dollars.
These figures are for the month of April, before Iraq commits to reduce its exports after the agreement with (OPEC +), which requires Iraq to reduce its rate (22.8%) to the middle of the current year.
So, the rate of Iraqi exports will be less by (23,517,039) barrels, which equals (79,627,871) barrels. If we take the same price of a barrel (13.801) dollars, then Iraq’s imports will be (1,100,000,000) dollars approximately.
As for the next half of the year, Iraq is obligated to reduce its oil exports by (18%), i.e. (18,566,083) barrels, which is equivalent to (84,578,827) barrels, and if we take the same price of a barrel (13.801) dollars, then Iraq’s imports will be (1,200,000,000) dollars approximately.
And when calculating the second half of the current year, this means that Iraq's oil imports are approximately (7,000,000,000) dollars, and if we add it to the month of March this year (8,200,000,000) approximately, while the 2019 budget for a fiscal year was equal to the salaries of retired civilians and the military (9,316,652,417,000) Iraqi dinars, And the salaries of employees are equal to (43,404,629,267,000) Iraqi dinars, and the total annual salaries for 2019 is (52,721,281,684,000) Iraqi dinars, which means that Iraq needs monthly (4,393,440,140,000) Iraqi dinars, and if we take into account that the Iraqi dinar exchange needs 1200 dinars per dollar Monthly to approximately (3,660,000,000) dollars, while the local production of Iraq is (1,100,000,000) approximately for the month of March and (1,200,000,000) approximately for the coming months, as Iraq needs (2.5) billion dollars approximately per month to cover monthly salary expenses only, but for the rest of the operating expenses, the matter is He is facing a great difficulty, as Iraq had built its budget for the year 2019 - Iraqi facts: issue 4529 on 11/11/2019 - at 120 million. Almost a dollar and more than (78%) of which are operating expenses, which means that these expenditures are continuous and Iraq needs them. So how can a country require its operational expenditures 93 billion dollars while its imports do not exceed 15 billion dollars with a difference exceeding 75 billion dollars, certainly the Iraqi state is in great trouble and it is Iraq is heading towards bankruptcy. Not surprisingly, this Iraq is on the verge of economic collapse. As for the reasons, it is poorly planned and even less lacking. Why did Iraq not work in the oil and gas industries? When the oil refining industry and the petrochemical industry did not exist, Iraq saved a lot of its operating expenses, as well as a number of sources of the economy as well as the workforce.
Iraq possesses tremendous fortunes in other fields, industrial, agricultural, tourism and a distinct geographical location and others that enable it to transform into a diversified economy (Diversified Economy) and oil may fall naturally and abnormally until it reached its worst prices in decades as it is known that oil is on a continuous descent and that it escalates Its prices are a natural matter in the presence of sustainable energy that will replace fossil fuel such as oil, oil shale, and natural gas, which is less harmful to the environment, and more durable, because it depends mainly on renewable natural resources. This is a natural downturn, as the Corona pandemic (COVID-19) caused an unplanned or deliberate drop in oil prices, as it is an unnatural reason for the decline of oil. The economic crisis comes with the loss of Sovereign Wealth Fund, a fund subject to the same idea of ​​a regular investment fund. But it does not manage the funds of individuals, companies or bodies, but rather the funds of countries and governments.
On the short-term level and as soon as possible it requires the Iraqi government to reduce unnecessary expenditures and detect waste and thefts in the field of the job, and there is a ghost employee using modern technology (Definition Of Identification), and there is a large disparity between salaries that requires real and fair treatments as well as The multiplicity of salaries for certain categories at the expense of the other, in addition to dispensing unnecessary materials imported from outside Iraq, especially in the agricultural and industrial sectors, while encouraging farmers to carry out their tasks by ensuring that borders close all ports without exception and provide the basic requirements for this industry, industrial agriculture Agriculture) is a form of modern agriculture that refers to industrial production of livestock, poultry, fish and crops.
Industrial farming methods are scientific, economic and political techniques, and they include innovation in agricultural machinery and farming methods, genetic technology, techniques for achieving economies of scale in production, the creation of new markets for consumption, the application of patent protection protection to genetic information, and global trade.
And to encourage national industries by making use of the large potentials available in Iraq and abroad, especially taking advantage of ready-made production lines by concluding agreements with producing international companies, so they save money and employ the workforce.
As for the strategic level, it requires a comprehensive review of all economic and administrative policies that have harmed Iraq and put plans that exceed reactions and turn into action projects that can build the country, that the economic mind that ruled Iraq for the past forty years destroyed much of what could be benefited from and made Iraq one of the most corrupt countries Backward, all this can be fixed if there is real will and thoughtful plans to address the country's problems.

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